Turkey vs USA Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Turkey vs USA Match Preview

Turkey face the United States in the Group D finale at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood on Thursday June 25, with both matches in the group kicking off simultaneously at 10pm ET.

The USA have already won the group with six points and are confirmed in the Round of 32 regardless of this result.

Turkey are eliminated after back-to-back defeats to Australia and Paraguay, a tournament campaign that promised much and delivered nothing — zero goals scored across two games despite carrying Arda Guler, Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz in their squad.

Turkey Have the Names But None of the End Product

Vincenzo Montella’s side arrived at this tournament as one of the most discussed squads in Group D.

Arda Guler was the Champions League’s Revelation of the Season at Real Madrid. Calhanoglu captains Inter Milan. Kenan Yildiz has been one of Juventus’s most important players.

On paper, that attacking midfield unit should have been capable of breaking down Paraguay and Australia. In practice, Turkey failed to register a single goal across 180 minutes of football and were eliminated before their final group game for the first time since Euro 2020.

The 0-2 defeat to Australia on Matchday 1 exposed a defensive fragility and a finishing problem that the coaching staff could not solve. The 0-1 loss to Paraguay on Matchday 2 came despite Turkey having the better of the match statistically, but Matias Galarza’s goal stood and ten-man Paraguay held firm throughout the second half.

With nothing to play for, Montella will be assessing his squad ahead of a tournament exit, but Turkey will not be passive and their attacking players will want to end the group stage with something to show for the campaign.

The USA Have Already Made Their Statement

Mauricio Pochettino’s side produced one of the best first-half performances in recent USMNT history in the 4-1 win over Paraguay on Matchday 1, with Folarin Balogun scoring twice to become the first American to net a brace in a World Cup match since 1930.

The 2-0 win over Australia on Matchday 2 was more controlled, with a Cameron Burgess own goal and an Alex Freeman header securing the group without the need for Christian Pulisic, who has been managing a calf injury since the Paraguay game.

With qualification already secured and first place confirmed, Pochettino has the luxury of rotating to protect key players ahead of the knockout stage.

Tyler Adams, Antonee Robinson, Balogun and Chris Richards all carry yellow cards and risk suspension if booked, giving the coach additional reason to manage his squad.

Pulisic’s involvement remains uncertain, the calf knock is not considered serious but with nothing at stake, starting him would be an unnecessary risk.

The USA will still be motivated at home in Los Angeles but the knockout stage is the priority.

Turkey vs USA Predictions

The top prediction for this fixture is over 3.5 goals at 2.75 odds. Turkey must attack to end a tournament campaign that has produced nothing in front of goal, and their creative quality through Guler and Yildiz will finally have the freedom to express itself against a USA side that will rotate and may not press with the same intensity as earlier in the group.

We also find value in backing USA to win and both teams to score at 3.75 odds. Turkey will not be scoreless for a third consecutive match when given the freedom this dead-rubber fixture provides, and Guler in particular is capable of producing a moment of individual quality regardless of the context. The USA, even with a rotated XI, have the depth to win this game — Balogun, Reyna, Freeman and Weah all offer a genuine goal threat and have started or featured heavily across the first two games. A USA win combined with Turkey finally registering is a realistic outcome and the 3.75 price reflects the value in that combined market.

The correct score prediction is USA 3-1 at 17.00 odds. Turkey will score but the USA have too much attacking quality across their squad to be held or beaten in front of their own crowd.

For tips across the full tournament, visit our World Cup 2026 football tips page, or head to the World Cup 2026 hub for full group coverage.

Arun- June 21, 2026

Turkey vs USA Betting Tips

Over 3.5 Goals

OK

2.75 Odds

USA to win & Both teams to score

OK

3.75 Odds

USA 3-1

OK

17.00 Odds