Portugal vs Spain Prediction, Tips & Match Preview

Portugal vs Spain Match Preview

Portugal and Spain meet in the FIFA World Cup Round of 16 at Dallas Stadium in Arlington on Monday 6 July, with kick-off at 3pm Eastern and 8pm in the United Kingdom. Neighbours and old rivals, the two Iberian sides collide in the standout tie of the round, a rematch of the 2025 Nations League final that Portugal won on penalties, with a place in the quarterfinals at stake.

The contrast in mood could hardly be sharper. Spain arrive as one of the tournament favourites after a flawless run, while Portugal have stumbled through an uneven campaign and needed a late comeback to survive the last round. Quality runs through both squads, but form and momentum sit firmly with La Roja.

Portugal Have Leaned on Ronaldo Through an Uneven Campaign

Portugal have yet to find their rhythm at this tournament. They finished second in Group K behind Colombia after a surprising 1-1 draw with DR Congo, a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan in which Cristiano Ronaldo became the first player to score at six World Cups, and a goalless draw with Colombia in which their talisman was booed and starved of service. Their Round of 32 tie with Croatia followed a familiar script, Roberto Martinez’s side trailing before Ronaldo levelled from the penalty spot and substitute Goncalo Ramos headed a late winner in a 2-1 comeback.

For all the uncertainty, Portugal carry genuine firepower and big-game pedigree. Ronaldo, at 41 and on what looks like his final World Cup, remains a threat in the box, with Bruno Fernandes supplying the creativity and set-piece delivery and Vitinha and Joao Neves controlling midfield. Diogo Costa has been reliable in goal, and Martinez has proven match-winners on his bench. The concern is that they have not yet blended all that talent into a settled side, though they did beat Spain in the Nations League final only twelve months ago.

Spain’s Relentless Form and Clean-Sheet Record Set Them Apart

Spain have looked every inch the tournament’s team to beat. Ranked second in the world, they topped Group H without conceding, drawing 0-0 with Cabo Verde before beating Saudi Arabia 4-0 and Uruguay 1-0, then swept Austria aside 3-0 in the Round of 32 through a Mikel Oyarzabal double and a Pedro Porro strike. Four matches, four clean sheets, and an unbeaten run in normal time that now stretches to 28 games since March 2024.

Luis de la Fuente’s side blend control and cutting edge. Rodri, the captain and reigning Ballon d’Or winner, and Pedri run the midfield, 19-year-old Pau Cubarsi has anchored the meanest defence in the competition, and Lamine Yamal, fully recovered from a hamstring problem, provides the moments of magic from the right. Oyarzabal has been the most clinical forward on show. Nico Williams is being managed through a minor issue but is expected to feature, and Spain’s strength in depth gives them options Portugal will struggle to match.

Portugal vs Spain Prediction

The best bet for this match is Spain to win at odds of 1.97. La Roja have been the more complete and consistent side throughout the tournament, with more quality across the pitch, a clear tactical identity and a defence that has yet to be breached. Portugal have flashes of brilliance and beat Spain in last year’s Nations League final, but their uneven form and reliance on individual moments make Spain the more convincing outcome over ninety minutes.

Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytime also appeals at 2.40. The Real Sociedad forward has been Spain’s most clinical attacker, scoring twice against Austria and offering a reliable focal point to the movement of Yamal and Nico Williams around him. Against a Portugal defence that has looked less than watertight, he shapes up as one of the likeliest players to find the net.

Our correct score prediction is Spain 2-0 at 9.50. Spain’s clean-sheet record suggests they can keep Portugal at arm’s length, and their attacking quality should be enough to build a controlled lead. A composed, two-goal Spanish win without reply stands out as the most realistic outcome in a tie where their defensive solidity could prove decisive.

Arun- July 3, 2026

Portugal vs Spain Betting Tips

Spain to win

OK

1.97 Odds

Mikel Oyarzabal to score anytime

OK

2.40 Odds

Spain 2-0

OK

9.50 Odds