Paraguay vs Australia Prediction, Betting Tips & Match Preview

Paraguay vs Australia Match Preview

Paraguay and Australia meet in the Group D decider at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara on Thursday June 25, with second place and automatic qualification for the Round of 32 on the line for both sides.

The United States have already won the group with six points, leaving this match as a straight shootout.

Australia sit second on three points with a superior goal difference, while Paraguay are third on three points and must win to guarantee their place in the knockout stage.

A draw is enough for Australia, who would go through on goal difference if points remain level. For tips across the full tournament, visit our World Cup 2026 football tips page, or head to the World Cup 2026 hub for full group coverage.

Paraguay Must Win and Must Do It Without Almiron

Gustavo Alfaro’s side showed real character in beating Turkey 1-0 on Matchday 2, holding on with ten men for an entire second half after Miguel Almiron became the first player ever sent off under FIFA’s new mouth-covering rule.

The victory was a testament to the defensive organisation that has been the foundation of Paraguay’s campaign, but the cost was significant. Almiron serves his one-match suspension here, and his absence from the left flank removes Paraguay’s primary source of pace and directness in transition.

Matias Galarza scored the only goal against Turkey and carries a yellow card into this fixture, meaning Alfaro must manage him carefully.

The creative burden falls entirely on Julio Enciso, whose movement and shooting ability from range have been the most dangerous element of Paraguay’s attack throughout the group stage.

Without Almiron stretching the game, Australia’s compact backline will have less space to deal with and Enciso will face a more crowded environment to operate in.

Australia Have the Structure and the Situation to See This Through

Tony Popovic’s side have conceded twice in this tournament, an own goal and a header from Alex Freeman in the 2-0 defeat to the USA and despite losing on Matchday 2, the defensive organisation has been consistent across both games.

The 2-0 win over Turkey on Matchday 1 was built on exactly the qualities Australia will need here: disciplined shape, quick transitions and clinical finishing when chances arrived.

Nestory Irankunda cut in from the left and finished with composure in the 27th minute, and Connor Metcalfe doubled the lead after a Turkish turnover in midfield.

That pattern of winning the ball and moving quickly is precisely how Australia cause problems, and Paraguay without Almiron will be less capable of pressing high and forcing turnovers themselves.

Popovic confirmed a fully fit squad and the head-to-head dynamic means Australia approach this match knowing a point is enough. That is a significant psychological edge against a Paraguay side that must chase the game.

Paraguay vs Australia Prediction

The best bet for this match is both teams to score at 2.10 odds. Paraguay must win, which means they will commit men forward from the first whistle regardless of the scoreline. Australia have scored in both of their group games and carry genuine attacking threat through Irankunda and Mohamed Toure on the counter.

Paraguay’s defensive record has been decent under pressure but they will be stretched here as Alfaro pushes for the result he needs. Both sides finding the net reflects the likely shape of a game where neither team can afford to be passive and the attacking quality exists on both sides to punish defensive lapses.

We also find value in backing over 0.5 goals in the first half priced at 1.88 odds. Paraguay will not sit back and wait for Australia to come to them — the stakes demand an aggressive approach from kick-off, and Australia’s counter-attacking system means they will be ready to exploit any space left behind.

Our recommended correct score tip is 1-1 at full-time, priced at 5.50 odds. Paraguay are capable of scoring against this Australia defence and will create chances in the first half before the game opens up. Australia, with a draw sufficient to qualify, may become more conservative once they go behind or once the game is level, allowing Paraguay to push without finding a second.

A 1-1 scoreline captures the competitive nature of a match where one side needs to win and the other knows a draw is enough — a tension that historically produces tight, split results in decisive group stage fixtures.

Arun- June 21, 2026

Paraguay vs Australia Betting Tips

Both Teams to Score

OK

2.10 Odds

Over 0.5 Goals First Half

OK

1.88 Odds

Correct Score: 1-1 at full-time

OK

5.50 Odds