Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction & Betting Tips

Arsenal vs Manchester City Match Preview

Arsenal and Manchester City come into this game with strong recent records, but the immediate momentum looks slightly different. Arsenal have won four of their last five in all competitions, while City have won only twice in the same span and arrive after a heavy defeat in Europe.

This fixture has also become a tight tactical contest in recent meetings. Four of the last five head to heads finished level or were decided by a single Arsenal goal, which points towards another controlled game with fine margins.

Gunners carrying sharper recent rhythm into this test

Arsenal head into the match after a 2-0 home win over Everton, which followed another disciplined Premier League display in a 1-0 win at Brighton. The Gunners have won four of their last five matches in all competitions and remain unbeaten across that run.

What stands out is their defensive control. Arsenal have conceded only three goals in their last five matches, and two of those games ended with clean sheets in league action. Even when they were held by Bayer Leverkusen, they still kept the score down and avoided losing control of the tie.

At home, the Gunners also look settled in this fixture. They beat Manchester City 1-0 in this ground in October 2023, then thrashed them 5-1 here in February 2025. That recent home record against this opponent strengthens the case that Arsenal can dictate the match again.

Citizens still dangerous, but recent slips raise questions

Manchester City drew 1-1 at West Ham in their latest outing, and that result continued a less convincing stretch. Across their last five matches, the Citizens have drawn twice, lost once, and their most damaging result was the 3-0 defeat away to Real Madrid.

They are still scoring at a decent rate, with goals in four of those five matches, but the defensive edge has not looked as firm. City conceded three in Madrid, two at home against Nottingham Forest, and one at West Ham. That is a notable shift for a side that usually controls games through possession and territory.

The head to head record in this fixture also suggests City have found Arsenal difficult to break down. They have failed to beat Arsenal in the last five meetings, and in that span they scored only four goals. That matters here because Arsenal are arriving with greater balance at both ends of the pitch.

Arsenal vs Manchester City Prediction

The best bet for this match is Arsenal to win at 2.44 odds. Arsenal come into the game in better form, they have won four of their last five, and they have already beaten Manchester City in each of the last two meetings at the Emirates. City remain a major threat, but their latest run has included dropped points and a clear defensive dip.

Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 odds also makes sense in a fixture that is often defined by control rather than chaos. Three of the last five head to heads finished with two goals or fewer, and Arsenal have built recent wins on compact defending rather than open attacking exchanges. That makes a lower scoring contest a reasonable reading of the data.

Our recommended correct score tip is Arsenal 1-0 priced at 9.00 odds. That outcome matches the recent pattern between these sides, and it also reflects Arsenal’s current defensive level. With the Gunners conceding only three goals across their last five matches, a narrow home win looks well supported by the available numbers.

Steffen Schmidt- March 21, 2026

Arsenal vs Manchester City Betting Tips

Arsenal to win

OK

2.44 Odds

Under 2.5 goals

OK

1.90 Odds

Correct Score: Arsenal 1-0

OK

9.00 Odds