Three wins in a row has fired Chelsea up to 8th in the league from the bottom half, now do they really have a chance to finish inside top four from here.
The Blues are still within a chance to go on and achieve this if you look at the mathematical probabilities. You don’t have to be a genius or need a magic formula to know this as their only chance to be there next season is by winning Champions League or finish inside the top four in the Premier League.
Without a doubt, Chelsea’s transformation as strong bunch under the management of interim coach Guus Hiddink have given much joy to their fans and they have started dreaming of the impossible. Let analyse what are the chances for Chelsea to qualify for Champions League next season.
1. Win the Champions League
Winning the Champions League seems to be their best chance to be in the next season’s competition at the moment. To do so they have a big hurdle to cross as they have to overturn the 2-1 deficit of PSG in the return leg at Stamford Bridge.
They have done the same under Roberto Matteo in 2012 defeating Bayern Munich at their own home ground Allianz Arena. The Blues could back themselves up considering their form in Europe has been never in question and the away goal advantage in the first leg against could work well in their favour when they host the French Champions in London in a couple of weeks.
2. Chances of Top 4 Finish in Premier League.
This is mathematically possible, but in reality this could be mission impossible. Chelsea have already won three in a row and they must win the next 10 to make sure they reach there. And this makes it 13 wins in a row, something of a fairytale run is needed.
They are still in the FA cup and their progress in Champions League is of utmost important, which brings in squad rotation at times and could result in points dropped when least expected.
Let’s say Chelsea win all of their matches from now on and that will help them finish the season with 69 points. But fourth placed Manchester City need just 13 from 12 matches to cancel this out and fifth placed Man United need just 16 points from 11 matches.
Now, the Blues have won 5 of the 11 matches since Hiddink took charge, now they have 39 points. Just imagine what could have been the chances if they had won 2 more from those 6 draws matches. That could have put them on 45 points, which could have been 1 point more than fifth placed Manchester United.
So the best Chelsea could achieve is a 6th of 7th place depending upon how West Ham and Liverpool fare in rest of their league matches.
Can Chelsea Qualify of Champions League next season?
The only realistic chance that remains for Chelsea is to win the Champions League and you can completely rule out a top four finish in Premier League. Even to win the Champions League, they have to first overcome PSG on aggregate and then they could come across some tough oppositions like Bayern, Juventus, Real Madrid or Barcelona.
If they get into the quarter finals of the competition, Chelsea may still have 15% chance of winning the title, which could increase depending on their progress to subsequent rounds.
The damage has been already done by Jose Mourinho and Hiddink has done his very best to get them back on track.[interaction id=”56d717f836e5105a3a3cf107″]