Mainz vs Paderborn Prediction & Match Preview

Mainz vs Paderborn, Saturday, 29 February 2020
German Bundesliga
Kick-off at 14:30 UK / 15:30 CET
Venue: Opel Arena.

Two relegation contenders lock horns in a nail-biting showdown with top tier survival at stake in Saturday’s Bundesliga clash.

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: Match Preview

After a great opening phase where Mainz boasted the lion’s share of possession and looked the more likely to make something happen, the 05ers succumbed to the counter-attacking and clinical finishing of the Europa League-chasing Wolves, losing 4-0 at uneasy ground in Wolfsburg.

It was Mainz’s 15th season’s loss and a kick in the nuts for their fans who were hoping for more following great performances against Hertha and Schalke but reality struck and brought the 05ers back on the ground, still safe at 15th place but with their advantage over Fortuna downsizing to just two points following Rheinlander’s unexpected win at Freiburg.

Achim Beierlorzer’s pupils are doing a bit better on the side (though their record isn’t anything to write home about) as they’re still to get their first win at Opel Arena since December 2nd; draw against Schalke two weeks ago put an end to their four-game losing home run and upcoming duel v weakest Bundesliga side is perhaps their greatest chance to finally snap out of it.

Unlucky Paderborn had a point in the bag with 15 minutes to go but Robert Lewandowski had other plans as he scored his 25th Bundesliga goal of the season, preserving Bayern on the top as they scrap past unyielding underdog.

A series of unfortunate events for Steffen Baumgart and his men is at it’s peak as one could argue they’ve deserved a lot more from their recent outings but football can be a cruel mistress sometimes; placed dead last at Bundesliga table, six points away from their next rivals and safety, there’s a lot at stake in Saturday’s clash.

Allianz Arena defeat put an end to Black&Blues’ short lived unbeaten run on the road but their away form shows a signs of improvements ever since December rolled in as Paderborn acquired seven points from last five away trips, losing only to title challengers, Bayern and Monchengladbach.

Alexander Hack and Stefan Bell won’t be in Mainz’s lineup for relegation six-pointer v Paderborn but their key defender Jerry St. Juste just might make it in time.

Streli Mamba is only one certainly out for guests, with question mark looming over a number of players like Gerrit Holtmann, Jamilu Collins, Abdelhamid Sabiri and Luca Kilian.

Mainz vs Paderborn: Head-to-head (h2h)

  • Overall Stats (5 games): FSV Mainz 3 wins, 2 draws, SC Paderborn 0 wins.
  • The 05ers have 2-0-0 record at home versus Paderborn.
  • Mainz’s last excursion to Paderborn was fruitful as they’ve got all the points in 1-2 victory.
  • Die Nullfünfer are on a three-game unbeaten streak v Paderborn.
  • Visitors couldn’t keep the ball out of their net last three times they’ve played FSV Mainz.

Mainz vs Paderborn: Prediction

One similarity ties Mainz at their home ground and Black&Blues on the road. Matches against top 4 sides excluded, both of these are fairly conservative going forward when they’re facing similar opposition at home (Mainz) or going up against slightly better team on the side (Paderborn) and that’s main reason why I think we won’t be seeing much of a football being played at Opel Arena.

I’ve used similar reasoning for my second recommendation, adding up the fact that while both sides have had their fair share of fallouts, it usually happens after the break so if they decide to follow their own patterns, first half will be tight, dirty affair, with most of the action happening later on.

Mainz vs Paderborn Betting tips

  • Under 3.5 goals @ 1.65
  • First Half: Under 1.5 goals @ 1.65.

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