Betting on the correct score in football matches usually come with very good odds, largely down to how difficult it is to predict, aside from the rare 0-0 when one of the manager’s decides to park the bus and you have faith in their defence.
I’ve read theories over the years that betting on a 2-1 result is the most common when betting on football.
Earlier this week I published a list of every single Premier League result over the course of its 25 years in existence. That’s 9,746 results to be exact.
The scoreline that came out the most? 1-0. This result has occurred 1,782 times in the Premier League, compared to the 1,455 2-1 results.
Sticking with the 1-0 scoreline though. To have occurred 1,782 times in 9,746 matches means that 18% of Premier League results end 1-0. That’s 69 out of 380 games a season and almost two a weekend.
Is this profitable to bet on every game ending 1-0? It most certainly is, but only if you can correctly predict which of the two sides are going to win by that scoreline. You may not even want to bet on every single game either. For example, you may be expecting Manchester City to score 3 or more versus Brighton, or it to be a goal fest in another match. That comes with a risk of missing out on any 1-0 though.
Let’s have a look at all the odds for 1-0 results this weekend:
Arsenal vs Leicester City
Odds on favourites Arsenal are currently 9.8 to win 1-0 whilst Leicester City are at 28.0
Watford vs Liverpool
Liverpool are favourite to win at the Hawthorns in Saturday’s lunchtime kickoff and are currently 8.4 to win, compared to Watford at 19.5.
Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield Town
Playoff winners Huddersfield Town are 13.5 to win their first-ever Premier League game when they travel to Crystal Palace on Saturday, with the hosts as low as 7.4.
Chelsea vs Burnley
Chelsea are the shortest odds any team to win this weekend and can be found at 8.0 to win by the scoreline of 1-0. Longshots Burnley are currently 36.0 to win by a goal to nil.
Everton vs Stoke City
Everton are 7.4 to beat Stoke City 1-0 while the visitors are 17.0
Southampton vs Swansea City
Southampton are pretty short in the 1X2 market at 1.65 to beat Swansea City on Saturday and can be backed at 6.4 to win 1-0. The visitors are 16.0.
West Brom vs Bournemouth
The bookmakers are expecting a close encounter at the Hawthorns with West Brom 2.5 and Bournemouth 3.35 to win. The hosts are 8.6 and visitors are 10.0 to win 1-0.
Brighton vs Manchester City
Premier League new boys Brighton are longshots to beat Manchester City in Saturday’s evening game. Pep Guardiola’s side are as short as 1.35 and with odds of 8.4 to win 1-0. The hosts are 32.0 outsiders to win by the same scoreline.
Newcastle vs Tottenham
The bookmakers expect Tottenham to win at Rafael Benítez’s Newcastle on Sunday with odds of 1.73. Spurs are 8.4 to win 1-0 whilst the hosts are 16.5 to cause an update.
Manchester United vs West Ham
The Premier League opening weekend closes at Old Trafford with José Mourinho’s Manchester United 1.34 favourites to beat West Ham. The Red Devils are 7.4 to win with 1-0 scoreline and it’s 30.0 that they lose by the same score.
You could actually ask for slightly higher odds for each of these scorelines based on the gap between the back and lay values, but we’ll stick to the quoted price for this exercise.
Let’s say this is a typical week and that we get these odds for 1-0 each weekend:
With odds as short as 6.4 and 7.4 it’s very unlikely to be profitable in the long run without correctly calling the upsets. Should there be only 1-0 win this weekend backing all of the favourites would not return a profit. However, if you back all of the underdogs to win 1-0 you’d be guaranteed a tidy profit should any of them cause an upset.
In short, an average of 69 1-0 wins a season would guarantee you a very tidy profit but only if you correctly back the majority of them. There are much better betting systems out there!